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I did better this year than last; my guesses last year were pretty far off. My prediction accuracy was roughly 85% this time. I’m not sure if that means that I’m getting better at this game, or that this year’s Macworld Expo Stevenote was just more predictable. (Even if the ladder is true, i wasn’t disappointed.)

Let’s see how it breaks down:

Predictions that were correct*

Things i correctly predicted would happen:

• New MacBook (”MacBook Air”)
• Wireless Time Machine Backups: Yes (sort of… we don’t know yet if the Time Capsule has the exclusive privilege to back up over the network)
• iTunes Movie Rentals
• AppleTV update (though more was introduced than i expected)

Things i correctly predicted would not happen:

• Mac Tablet
• New Newton
• Mac Pro Minitower
• 3G iPhone
• 2nd Gen iPhone (though we may see a 16GB model)
• Wireless Syncing for iPod and iTunes
• iMac-shaped Laptop Docking Station (though we may see a dock of some sort, it certainly won’t be in the shape of an iMac.)

Predictions that were incorrect

Things i incorrectly predicted would happen:

• Updated Displays
• 10.5.2

Things i incorrectly predicted would not happen:

• nothing!

So after looking at my results, i realize that it seems easy to predict what won’t happen… which seems to have little value. (…Though they were all rumors that were circulating, so maybe there is little value, but not zero value to predicting that they will not happen.)

Final Results: 85% correct!

…sort of. 11 out of 13 guesses were correct, but that doesn’t take in to account the things that did happen that i didn’t predict, and i’m really not sure how i would compute that.