the-ish.com/blogMacWorld Prediction Scorecard
I couldn’t have been a whole lot more incorrect.
My predictions were specifically for Macworld, but apply also to the whole of 2007. I’ll revisit them again at the end of the year, and i think my batting average will greatly improve. :)
I’ll not list out every single prediction, but only mention the relevant ones:
Absolutely Will Happen = 12.5% Accuracy.
Out of the 8 guesses, only one was correct: the demonstration of a working iTV, final product name (I had guessed “Airport Video” but it turned out to be AppleTV), and an availability date. That’s 1 of 8.
Probably Will Happen = 0% Accuracy.
I got a smashing 0 of 7. I’m counting on these to come through for me sometime this year. :)
Good Chance = 33% Accuracy
1 of 3, and i’m rounding up. I predicted: the announcement (though probably not availability) of a new Airport More-Extremer 802.11N Router to support iTV, and possibly a sideways remark about awaiting the standard to be ratified. I’m being very charitable giving myself this: it was not announced, but was released. True to my guess, it is not available, albeit only until february.
The Possibility Exists / Fat Chance
some right, most wrong, but as these categories are ambiguous as to whether i was predicting that they would come true, just mentioning the idea without any hope of it happening, or specifically saying that the chances are slim, i can’t calculate my accuracy. I’ll need to take this into consideration next time i make predictions, and be more clear cut about it. (No more combining predictions with wish lists and sarcasm)
No Way = 89% Accuracy (technically)
Out of the 9 predictions of things NOT to come, 8 actually didn’t. …I’m much better at predicting what will not happen than predicting what will (this time around at least). Chances are, though, that this is simply due to the fact that it is much easier to predict that outlandish things won’t happen then it is to predict what will.
Notably, the one thing i predicted wouldn’t happen was one of the only things that actually happened at all this Mac World (Some of the anti-prediction is yet to be seen.) it was the iPhone.
We’ll need to wait and see exactly how incorrect i was. :)
Conclusion
Like i mentioned before, i’ll be revisiting these predictions near the end of the year, and i expect my Accuracy rating to greatly improve. I’ll also learn from my mistakes, and the next round of predictions will follow some yet-to-be-deisgned format that will make the post-prediction scorecard more straight forward. In fact, i propose a standard prediction scorecard that other apple-blogs can use so that predictions from site to site can be easily compared and evaluated.