I bought a humidifier less than 6 months ago, and now filters are near impossible to find.

I’ve had 2 DVD players last only 2 years each, one from Sony ($100) and a nicer one from Denon ($250, upscaling) – neither could be repaired for less than the cost of a new comparable unit.

Bluray? better get the PS3 – you know it’ll be updated.

iPhone: you know it’ll be updated, instead of the current “you want new features / bug fixes? buy the new model” crap everyone else is doing.

Will your next purchase have ongoing support for a reasonable time? …or will it become irrelevant immediately after purchase? Some things are destined to be quickly outdated, but many things could last a long time if only their creators cared about them beyond the point of purchase.

First of all… (as Gruber points out) iSuppli doesn’t even have one to disassemble, to be sure of exactly the components inside the device.

Second of all, most of the price estimates ASSUME volume discounts on parts, and that assumption (while maybe within the realm of reality) is imagineered.

Third, their estimates don’t include (like ABC News mentioned) accessories included in the box, shipping, packaging, or software development (arguably the MOST important part of the device’s success) and ALSO don’t include Marketing, Support, ASSEMBLY, and very importantly, Research and Development (for hardware, software, online infrastructure, etc)

iSuppli has been doing this for long enough to know that the only way to get their name out there is essentially flame-baiting. It’s just sad to see ABC buy it hook-line and sinker.

That’s weird, as i was under the impression that 1.3GB was less than 33.8GB. Maybe i’m mistaken.

Obviously the 24-hour limit is not ideal. This has been discussed at length, and so i’ll try not get too far into it. I believe it’s a carry-over from the content owners’ similar contracts with cable companies (for their on-demand content). Like many have already pointed out, 24 hours is just too little to watch half a movie one night, and pick it up where you left off the next night art the same time. …even 26 hours would potentially resolve the issue, but i’m hoping to see something like 50 hours, which would be comparable to Blockbuster. 2 nights and a few extra hours.

The catalog needs to grow, and same-day-as-DVD availability. There’s already news on this front, but it is unclear if the new releases will be available for rent or only to purchase. It would also be nice to see a lot more catalog titles available.

What about TV show rentals? There are quite a few shows that have no shelf-life for me; once watched, i have no reason to watch them again. My iTunes library already has around 100 episodes of The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and The Colbert Report, about 2 or 3 of which i’ll ever watch again. I purchase them using a multi-pass, so each episode ends up being around 71 cents after tax, and storage is cheap, so renting may not really offer much of a benefit, but for shows that don’t offer a multipass, renting might be a decent option. I really don’t see this happening, but i suppose i enjoyed the thought exercise.

Are some movies be available to rent and not to purchase? …or the other way around? I’d like to see every single movie available both as a rental, and as a purchase. …if nothing else, just for the sake of simplicity.

HD Purchases? This is an interesting animal… current iPods can’t handle high definition content, and so allowing HD purchases may necessitate including a SD download, or risk confusing customers why their content doesn’t work. There’s also the possibility of the content owners demanding so-called “secure paths” to pacify their paranoia. (also called “plugging the analog hole”) I’m thinking HD purchases won’t exist until, at the least, all the current generation iPods can support HD content.

One of the major drawbacks i have when purchasing movies is that i’m paying just about DVD prices, and getting what they call “near-DVD quality” – but i’m only getting stereo audio. I have to rent the movie in HD to get 5.1 surround sound, so the value of a movie purchase to me is pretty weak compared to a DVD.

I’ll explore issues of HD purchases in a little more depth soon.

How about the cost of the rental being applied toward the purchase? I’m thinking of a sort of “Complete My Album” for movies. I think that’s pretty self-explanatory, so i’ll move on.

What about a Shopping Cart for rentals? …something like a Netflix Queue. I’ve already found myself wanting this missing feature as i come across a movie i’d like to watch, just not immediately. Maybe not even soon – but eventually. the iTunes store on my computer offers a shopping cart, which i use to hold “eventual purchases”. without that shopping cart, i’m sure that many purchases would never have happened as i’d have forgotten what i was thinking about buying. Being able to queue up movies i want to watch would probably make me rent far more often.

Those are my thoughts, i’d love to hear yours.

The Casio EX-F1, and the Nikon D3, are examples of this trend already starting to hit the market.

“When will i be able to get a phone with a REAL flash!?” is a complaint i hear often enough. Sufficiently High ISO ratings (with reasonably low noise) could de-necessitate a “real flash.” If we could get quick enough exposures with low enough grain, then low-light cameraphone images won’t need to be blurry and useless.

It’ll start at the top, in expensive Pro DSLRs and Prosumer cameras, but soon it will trickle down. I’m hoping we start seeing them in cameraphones within the next 2 years.

This same technology, along with higher megapixel counts, will also allow for high frame-rate video to start making its way into cameraphones.

“You’ll never see one of these scenes on TV because there’s a rule that the broadcasters are not allowed to follow the drunk baseball fan onto the field. If they were to broadcast the drunk fan, the theory goes, that would just encourage more people to do it, meaning more delayed games, annoyed players, offended fans and busted streakers.”

Similarly, if someone claims to have a free energy device that will save all man kind, and promises to demo it in 3 weeks, i propose that blogs ignore ‘em. unless they’re ready to demo, or give concrete information about their supposed technology, give them no press.

As the theory goes, we’re just encouraging these people make silly claims they can’t/don’t/won’t back up, meaning more wasted time and annoyed readers.

This is essentially the streaking of the new media: claim you have a free-energy device that will save the world, and you’ll demo it in a week or two.

Get your 0.15 seconds of fame.

That’s no different that jumping down to the baseball field in your undies and running around: you just piss everyone off, and wasting their time, to get a little attention.

Most offer unlimited everything (minutes, texts, internet access) for somewhere around $120 – $140 per month. None seem to offer Unlimited Family Plans for anything less than just multiplying the price by the amount of lines. Verizon’s Basic Family Share plan is $199.98 for 2 lines to share Unlimited minutes, exactly the cost of two separate Unlimited plans – and each additional line is $99.99, again, exactly the same price as another separate line. (there is about a $10 discount if you add a line to the higher-end plans.)

So family plans, and shared minutes, start to make very little sense in the “Unlimited Plan” world. (as do “My Faves” and “In-network calling” as well as “Night and Weekend Minutes”)

What are the offers?

Ignoring Family Plans for a moment, let’s look at the cost of unlimited plans across the major carriers offering it:

Verizon

• $99.99 will get you Unlimited Minutes.
• $119.99 gets you Unlimited Minutes and Unlimited Text
• $139.99 gets you Unlimited Everything, meanings Minutes, Text, and Internet (“V CAST VPak, VZNavigator and Mobile Email“)

AT&T

These guys are a little more murky, and i’m basing this information off a press release. Based on the wording, these prices are for customers with “standard phones” …which doesn’t include “smartphones or PDAs or the iPhone.” I don’t think this means the plans are unavailable, possibly just different prices.

• $99.99 will get you Unlimited Minutes.
• $104.99 gets you Unlimited Minutes and 200 Text
• $134.99 gets you Unlimited Everything (“$35 for unlimited messaging and MEdia Net access.“)

T-Mobile

This is also based off a press release, but it does not mention unlimited internet.

• $99.99 will get you Unlimited Minutes and Messaging

Sprint

Sprint’s unlimited plans are currently available in test markets only, and probably subject to change.

• $119.99 will get you Unlimited Everything (Minutes, Texts, Internet)

Results

So they’re all about on par with each other, with Sprint’s coming in as the cheapest “everything” plan but with no “minutes only” option, and only marginally less expensive. Verizon’s looks like the most expensive, which is unsurprising considering they were the first to officially announce it and make it available.

Rumor has it that Sprint is going to undercut the other three by as much as 40%, which might actually make a splash in the mobile market. The current plans are progress, but they’re baby-steps. Most people don’t use enough minutes to justify paying over $100 a month, and many of those that do are on a Family Plan, and these unlimited plans seem to have nothing to offer family-plan-subscribers at all.

What I’d like to see

I’d like to see Sprint come in and undercut the other 3 by a large enough margin to make a difference. Unlimited minutes for $59.99, unlimited minutes and messaging for $69.99 (in line with their current rate of $10 for unlimited text) and unlimited everything for $89.99 (in line with their current $10 for unlimited text and $20 for unlimited EVDO internet.)

What I’d really like to see, though, is a Family Plan, with Unlimited shared minutes for 2 lines, with unlimited text and internet, for $129.99. Additional lines being $19.99 for minutes only, $29.99 with unlimited text, and $39.99 for unlimited everything.

This kind of drastic pricing is what could really start shaking up the mobile industry, and would steal subscribers away from other carriers. If Sprint simply follows the pack and offers similar plans, or even plans that are marginally cheaper, i don’t expect much of anything at all to happen, outside of the people who are already spending well over $100 for 3000+ minutes to “downgrade” their plans to the unlimited package. If the price point is moved as far away from $100 as I am suggesting, I’ll bet we see people with lesser plans upgrade, and people from other carriers switch. (It wouldn’t hurt if Sprint got some attractive handsets while they’re at it.)

“Mr Hesse, who replaced Gary Foresee as chief executive, has already announced the loss of 4,000 jobs and plans to close a fifth of Sprint’s retail sites in a bid to cut costs.” Financial Times

In what i see as a tasteful move, Sprint is starting from the top-down; they’ve already axed the CFO, Chief Marketing Office, and President of Sales and Distribution.

What has Sprint been doing wrong, and what can they do now? First let’s take a look at the problems Sprint will have to deal with, and then, explore some possible solutions.

#1. Horrible Customer Service

One of the most obvious problems is their awful customer service. Outsourced call centers, with employees who speak english poorly and clearly stick as closely to scripts as they can (there is being polite, and then there is stupid extraneous nonsense scripts that are just a waste of time), are endlessly frustrating.

“Sprint Nextel has consistently ranked near the bottom of customer satisfaction surveys by J.D. Power and Associates” – rcrnews.com

I’ll note, though, that I can’t say I’ve had a single good experience with any company’s customer service recently, with the notable exception of USAA; their customer service is phenomenal.

I’ve written before that, at least when it comes to special benefits, deals, and getting good customer service, Sprint’s customer service philosophy is fundamentally flawed, designed to only reward the wrong people.

#2. Bad Device Lineup

Even ignoring customer service issues, a boring lineup of handsets can impact new subscribers, as well as drive away current subscribers who jump ship for better devices elsewhere. AT&T’s exclusive with Apple’s iPhone only hurt Sprint more than they were already managing to hurt themselves with their outdated and boring lineup.

Boring Phones

Sprint’s device lineup has been particularly miserable recently. They had no “hot” new phones for the 4th quarter, and little or no handset exclusives for anything notable. They even discontinued one of the strongest handsets in their lineup, the Samsung M610, with no replacement in sight. Their M610, regarded as the country’s thinnest flip phone, decently equipped with bluetooth, 2MP camera, MicroSD, EVDO, etc, was their flagship phone, making appearances in most of Sprint’s marketing material, and is suddenly nowhere to be found, with nothing out to replace it. The rest of their lineup is entry-level plain-jane phones, a few silly gimmick phones, and then the status-quo “smartphone” with chicklet keyboards and dated interfaces.

Making matters worse, Samsung went on a Cease and Desist joyride and tried (successfully) to silence Mobiledea after they posted details on some very promising new Sprint devices, including the Samsung M800, the first news of anything worth calling an iPhone competitor coming to Sprint. The move just seems silly.

No Real iPhone Competition

Sprint’s handsets are boring by themselves, even if you ignore the impact of the iPhone. As of this writing, there isn’t a single device in Sprint’s lineup that a potential iPhone buyer could even consider as an alternative.

“What about the HTC Touch?” I’ve used it, and it’s just as clunky and stylus-requiring as the other winmo devices. Slapping a shallow little touch interface on top just really isn’t enough.

All the other smartphones don’t really compete with the iPhone, as the iPhone sort of carved out its own little niche between feature-phones and the large, cumbersome, unintuitive, stylus-requiring smartphone. (Many people originally argued that the iPhone wasn’t really a smartphone, just a very expensive multimedia feature-phone. Turns out that, semantics aside, the iPhone sits in a very profitable segment of the market that had been basically empty until it was released.)

Samsung’s (possibly) upcoming M800 might finally give Sprint a real iPhone competitor, but whether it is worthy of the title is yet to be seen (and Samsung seems to be doing anything they can to keep that from being seen.)

#3. Status Quo Plans

Sprint’s currently available plans are basically indistinguishable from any other carrier. Sprint lacks a catch or a gimmick: AT&T has rollover. T-Mobile has “myFaves” as well as “More Minutes” (“1,000 whenever minutes for $39.99/month”). Alltel has “My Circle”. What does Sprint have? Nights starting at 7pm?

Nothing obviously sets Sprint apart. It may be the case that Sprint has some of the best Data and Text rates around, but that’s really not enough, at least from a marketing standpoint.

Value

Something I’ve recently seen on comment and message forums: “If it weren’t for my SERO plan, i’d leave in a heartbeat.” (SERO stand for Sprint Employee Referral Offer) The problem is that the SERO plans are not available to the general public, and apparently the price is the only thing keeping these subscribers. For the general public, nothing sets Sprint’s plans apart as a good value. Pricewar? maybe, maybe not, but just matching the basic minutes/dollar formula of the other carriers isn’t helping anything.

Plan Simplicity

They’re also just as complicated as everyone else; no straightforward (Apple-like) plan options. everything is additional, separate, and confusing to the average joe just looking for a good plan. Simplifying service plan options would be a good step. Even just modifying how the plan options are displayed could make a difference.

What a mess. Even just in presentation, Sprint’s monthly plan options are a nightmare.

What they have going for them

EVDO, Good pricing for internet access, good pricing for texting (relatively), etc. Night and weekend minutes at 7pm… that’s about all that comes to mind. Also – lovely commercials.

Potential Solutions

So then what can Sprint do?

Better customer service

In the banking / insurance industry, an example to follow is USAA. Their customer service is phenomenal. Maybe Sprint needs to talk to their Customer Relations people and get some advice / hire a new VP of Customer Relations. Good customer service can, apparently, be a reality. Above all else, Sprint needs to take a good hard look at if outsourcing and cost-cutting their CS department is doing them any good. (Spoiler: it’s not.)

Better Phones

Sprint has nothing like the iPhone (and might not for a number of years) but it certainly comes across like they’re not even trying – or if they are, their effort is half-assed. (the HTC Touch is a good example: “oh just slap a few large icons on top of the same old, clunky, stylus-requiring and poorly organized Windows Mobile and get it out the door” – these other manufacturers just don’t get it. It’s all about interface, not just basic form-factor and a few large icons.) …though the Samsung M800 looks potentially promising, it certainly isn’t enough, and as of this writing, doesn’t even exist.

In it’s current situation, Sprint desperately needs a proverbial iPhone (to have an exclusive on one of the most hyped and highest media profile phones ever would be fantastic for sprint, but they’ve already essentially missed out by not getting THE iPhone – everything else for a long time, no matter how good it is, will end up just being a “knockoff”.)

Even outside of the iPhone-esque handset market, they need at least a few attractive phones. Sure, every company needs the generic Razr and “free picture phone!” – but there also needs to be a few NICE phones that people can get excited about. They had one with the Samsung m610 (thinest flip phone in the US, at least for a while – and even though it was considered their flagship phone, it’s no longer available, with no replacement in sight. …wtf?

Sprint needs a Sony Ericsson W580i – slim little slider that has a music player (that actually ready ID3 tags! imagine that! sure it’s still a clunky player when you compare it to an iPod/etc. but it’s basically usable, unlike most or all of the “music phones” available for sprint right now.)

Sprint needs a Samsung a727 – a nice, straightforward, 3g candybar. They need a Samsung Katalyst, or Samsung Blast, or Nokia 5300… They needs SOME kind of somewhat exciting phone, even if it’s NOT an exclusive (though that couldn’t hurt.)

All they have are a few generic Samsungs, Motorolas, Sanyos and LGs.
the LG Rumor is much clunkier than you’d think, the the Samsung UPstage is really aweful to use (though i appreciate their effort) and the rest are completely ignorable at best.

Better, More Simplified, Plans

The mobile market is mature, and to be profitable, Sprint need to not only retain its current subscribers, but also find new ones. The major way they’ll get significant new subscribers is to steal them from other carriers. Some great phones, and far better customer service would be a great start, but another obvious route (hopefully along side these other issues) is to offer better prices. Sprint already offers their data and texting options for very good prices, especially when compared to AT&T. Now they need to undercut AT&T’s plan prices. Sprint could make themselves the obvious choice by having an obvious value. The tricky part is to avoid looking like the “discount brand” and retain as much “dignity” as possible, but I think that wouldn’t be hard to accomplish. (It would need to be a consideration though.)

Simplified plans, possibly like SERO, or maybe just simplified as much as possible, will help retain current subscribers as well as attract new ones. A few basic plans, with customizable options, like a BTO Mac. Apple’s online store has it right. Specifically, choosing a basic model (or one of 3 basic configurations) and then customizing. Sprint needs to wrap things up together, and stop having 4 different charges for text/internet/sms/picturemail. I really think that people will probably buy more, and be happier, if there are less (or at least more simplified) options available. Fewer plans with more flexibility would be a lot better than several plans with little flexibility. I should be able to sign up for a “medium” package and then add minutes/options as i see fit.

It may also be in Sprint’s interest to find a way to reward loyal customers. This could set them apart from the rest of the industry who, in my experiences, treat their subscribers as disposable.

End Notes

Sprint has a bit of a fight in front of it, but if they can start making some good decisions, and not just follow the rest of the industry into the toilet they’ve been crapping in, they’ll have a chance.

Hell, it could even be a good thing; a catalyst that lets Sprint become not only more profitable but also better all around for their customers and the industry as a whole. …Or maybe they just continue on their path to bankruptcy. We’ll see.

This is a fundamental flaw in Sprint’s customer service philosophy, and many other companies likely share the same flawed thinking.

“Retention” reps are obviously more powerful because they’re a sort of last-resort to keep a subscriber, but they’re not just people with access to a few special deals. The whole experience is in better in just about every way, from the attitude and manners the reps display, to their problem solving abilities, and even to their master of the english language. It’s what Sprint’s customer service should have been like all along. So then: why is Sprint (exclusively) rewarding the customers that they seem more likely to loose? Shouldn’t Sprint, instead, reward the loyal customers? What about the customers that are paying for larger-than-average plans? Why not reward them?

Here’s an idea: start a loyalty rewards program. Give customers who haven’t missed a payment for 12 months a 5% discount. Maybe give people with monthly plans of over $100 free unlimited text messaging. How about bundling 300 text for free with any unlimited EVDO package? Maybe even consider giving people who have a monthly plan of over $200 priority customer service?

Some sort of positive reinforcement seems like it would be much more effective (and better for Sprint’s image) than only rewarding the potential ship-jumpers.

Just a thought.

I have a few comments, and thoughts on the announcements.

Time Capsule

I love that Apple is making backing up easy (and even fun) – and this hardware is a great way to simplify the process. What i’m wondering is if any other NAS, or more specifically, a drive connected to an Airport Extreme, will get this functionality. If not, that ends up being pretty lame; as many have pointed out, network Time Machine backups was advertised before Leopard was released, and people may have purchased an Airport Extreme and drive specifically for this purpose (myself included.)

$299 for a 500GB wireless NAS, which is also a full featured 802.11n draft Router / Extender, that is also a print server… it’s hard to find what would actually be competing with the Time Capsule. Even without an obvious competitor, this is priced well. It’s only a $120 premium over the Airport Extreme, basically the same thing without a 500GB drive… and how much does a good 500GB drive go for on average these days? Best Buy sells them for around $140. Even the 1TB, $499 model is relatively well priced, but a little bit expensive for an average user, and 500GB might fill up quick with a handful of family users all backing up to it.

iPhone Sales

4 million iPhones sold since it was released, which was just over 6 months ago. That’s 20,000 iPhones sold per day – as Apple likes to put it. People are saying that these numbers disappoint, that the stocks fell because of this number. I don’t buy it. It sounds to me like they’re well on their way to 10M buy the end of this year. Considering that more compelling software is on the horizon (both from Apple and from 3rd parties this year) and that certainly by Christmas, I’m predicting we’ll see another price reduction. (I actually think we’ll see a 16BG model, maybe for $399, knocking the 8GB down to $349, but i plan to cover that in a future post, my predictions for 2008.)

iPhone and Touch Update

The new software is great. $20 for a handful of new applications for the iPod Touch stings a little, but really, how could you expect anything else? A lot of really vocal whiners are screaming it’s unfair, but where’s the precedence? How often do you buy a device that ever gets upgrades, much less free upgrades? How about your cellphone (ignoring the iPhone, obviously) have you ever gotten significantly increased functionality, for free, from the manufacturer? Even if you have, i think we can agree that it’s extremely uncommon. Most devices like this come with bad trial software, if anything at all.

Many people (look at Engadget comments for an example) are screaming about how unfair it is that the software is free on new iPod Touches, but costs money for the “early adopters”. These people need a little perspective: this isn’t new. It’s exactly the same deal as the iLife suite, or the OS. Free on new machines, optional, relatively inexpensive charge for older machines.

If you look at the rest of the consumer electronics industry, you should be happy that Apple is making these upgrades available for current owners instead of trying to convince you to purchase a new one. WHen it really comes down to it, it’s basically just a software package: if you feel like you need it then buy it. If not then don’t. It’s really that simple.

iTunes Movie Rentals

I think these will do well, but it’ll take some time to catch on. I have a lot of thoughts on the matter, and i’ll be covering them in a future article.

Apple TV Update

I’m very excited to see it in action.

The price drop + not needing a computer = good. I’ve had an AppleTV since it was released, and i love it… but i’ve not been recommending it to anyone other than my nerdier friends who i think could make good use of it. I think this change will make a big difference (though i think it’ll be a while before things like this really catch on in the mainstream.)

There are many things that can, and should, be tweaked or changed for the AppleTV (and rentals) to be more of A Good Thing™ – but i’ll go into more depth in a future post.

MacBook Air

I want one. I’ll admit the price point is not exactly what i was hoping for, but it actually makes sense. It isn’t a budget ultra-portable. It’s also not a tiny powerhouse (which many people were hoping for; a resurrection of the 12″ powerbook, and i understand their disappointment.) It’s not a well-rounded, laptop for the people.

What it is, though, is incredibly sexy. I see it selling really well as a bit of a social status thing, but also to people who have very serious machines at home (Mac Pros, etc.) for the real hard work, and want a sexy little laptop for doing all the lightweight stuff like web surfing and email, and the occasional movie on a plane.

I think many people see the MacBook Air as serving niche market, and i partially agree. What they are overlooking is that it doesn’t just serve a niche market, it serves several very coveted niche markets, and because of this it will do well for Apple.